Population Boom and Migration Trends Redefine Canada Real Estate Market in 2024
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Unprecedented population growth is reshaping Canada’s real estate market, with the most significant changes in both conventional and luxury segments, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Mid-Year State of Luxury Report for 2024. Statistics Canada highlights that all major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) saw their fastest growth since 2001-2002 as of July 1, 2023. Calgary led with a 5.9% growth rate, followed by Edmonton and Vancouver at 4.1%, Toronto at 3.3%, and Montreal at 2.9%.
Interprovincial and interregional migration trends have emerged as crucial indicators of local economic confidence and consumer sentiment, impacting housing markets. Vancouver experienced its largest net loss to interprovincial migration in over 20 years, losing 4,795 people, while all Ontario CMAs, including Toronto, saw net losses in this area. Alberta surpassed British Columbia in net interprovincial migration gains, with Calgary gaining 26,662 people. Significant net losses to regional migration were observed in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
Toronto’s luxury real estate market showed resilience, with a population gain of 221,588 people supporting steady activity despite economic challenges. Calgary’s market saw a surge due to immigration and record inter-provincial migration, with a 46% year-over-year increase in high-end residential sales over $1 million. Montreal’s luxury market remained balanced, with significant increases in $4 million-plus and $1 million-plus sales. In contrast, Vancouver’s luxury market activity declined, particularly in sales of ultra-luxury properties over $10 million, due to significant net migration losses. Overall, interprovincial and interregional migration patterns are now key signals for market performance, with Alberta’s major cities showing strong growth.
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